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Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will have to take a bigger axe to ministerial budgets or make further deep cuts to welfare to meet his target of a budget surplus before the end of the decade, a leading think-tank said. Osborne said on Thursday he was aiming for a surplus in 2018/19 and warned of tough choices ahead to achieve it. The Institute for Fiscal Studies said on Friday austerity would need to tighten even more to reach that goal. IFS director Paul Johnson said spending on central government public services - which exclude welfare - would have to be cut by 20 percent by 2018/19 from their level before Osborne began his austerity programme, deeper than the 8 percent reduction so far.